Il famoso rapporto Wasde (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) redatto dall'USDA è finalmente uscito ieri. Immediatamente dopo la sua pubblicazione la Borsa di Chicago è passata da uno stato di euforia ad uno di depressione in pochissimo tempo sulla scorta di mille voci, aspettative deluse, sorprese, per infine chiudere e riaprire stamane sui dati della vigilia. All'atto pratico come se non fosse successo nulla.
Stamane borse ancora ben intonate. Wheat a 8.30 $/bushel in questo momento e mais a 7,16.
Il rapporto WASDE è lungo ed articolato con migliaia di numeri. Qui la versione integrale dove trovate tutto (e gli eventuali commenti degli osservatori attenti del blog sono i benvenuti).
Mi limito a copia-incollare il relativamente sintetico prospetto del grano, giusto per lasciarne memorie sul blog.
WHEAT: Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2012/13 are raised 5 million bushels with higher estimated beginning stocks more than offsetting lower forecast production. Beginning stocks were reported in the June 29 Grain Stocks report 15 million bushels above last month’s projection. Feed and residual disappearance, seed use, and exports are all lowered slightly for 2011/12. Production for 2012/13 is reduced 10 million bushels as a 14-million-bushel reduction in winter wheat is only partly offset by higher forecast spring wheat. Among the Hard Red Winter wheat states, lower production for Texas, Colorado, Oklahoma, and Montana is only partly offset by increases for Kansas and Nebraska. For the Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat states, increases for Ohio, Illinois, and Indiana are mostly offset by reductions in the southern SRW-producing states.Total U.S. wheat use for 2012/13 is projected 35 million bushels higher. Domestic U.S. food use for 2012/13 is raised 5 million bushels on expectations of lower flour extraction rates for this year’s crop. Projected feed and residual use is lowered 20 million bushels, with higher prices and stronger export demand. Exports are projected 50 million bushels higher with reduced competition from Black Sea exporters. Ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 30 million bushels lower. The projected range for the 2012/13 season average farm price is raised 60 cents on both ends to $6.20 to $7.40 per bushel, supported by sharply higher corn and soybean prices.This compares with the record $7.24 per bushel reported for 2011/12.Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are reduced 5.1 million tons with lower world production more than offsetting a 1.6-million-ton increase in beginning stocks. World production is lowered 6.7 million tons with reductions for Russia, Kazakhstan, and China accounting for most of the reduction. Russia production is lowered 4.0 million tons with lower expected yields for winter wheat and lower area and yield prospects for spring wheat. Kazakhstan production is lowered 2.0 million tons as persistent June heat and dryness have also reduced production prospects. China production is reduced 2.0 million tons reflecting government indications of lower yields. Canada production is also lowered slightly, down 0.4 million tons, based on lower reported plantings in the latest official survey by Statistics Canada. EU-27 production is raised 2.1 million tons with increases for France, Germany, and Hungary more than offsetting a reduction for Poland.Global wheat consumption for 2012/13 is lowered 1.8 million tons mostly reflecting lowerexpected wheat feeding in Kazakhstan, Australia, and the United States. Partly offsetting are small increases in wheat feed and residual use for EU-27 and South Korea. Global wheat trade is lowered slightly with imports lowered for China, Indonesia, and Uzbekistan. Partly offsetting is an increase in imports for Iran. Exports are reduced 4.0 million tons for Russia and 1.5 million tons for Kazakhstan. Exports, however, are raised 2.0 million tons for India, 1.5 million tons for EU-27, and 1.4 million tons for the United States. World ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 3.3 million tons lower at 182.4 million.
Un piccolo estratto tradotto sul durum wheat USA.
La produzione di duro USA è prevista pari a 82 milioni di bushels, con una resa media di 38.6 bu/a, leggermente superiore all'ultimo anno. L'USDA prevede una superficie di 2.12 milioni di acri, 62 % superiori all'ultimo anno, esattamente come il precedente rapporto di giugno. La superficie a duro del N.Dakota si incrementa dell'88% prossima ai 1.35 milioni di acri. E le rese a 31 bushel, maggiori di 5.5 bu. Il Montana incrementa del 35 % la superficie, ma la resa si riduce di 2 bushel.
Infine le quotazioni: negli USA il duro, ancora su, a 7.68 $/bu (un altro +1% circa), Francia stamane stabile (con una lievissima tendenza al ribasso sulle quotazioni FOB), stabili i future canadesi.
In Italia ieri Foggia è aumentata di qualche cent, buon segno direi...
mentre oggi si attende Bologna.
In Sicilia già tutti in ferie alle Camere di Commercio?